The Market Opens Like Lagos on a Monday Morning

From the Desk of Mr. Pips

Dear Trader,

If you’ve ever stepped out in Lagos on a Monday morning, you know one thing for sure:

Buses speeding like they’re running from judgment.
People shouting.
POS operators arguing with banks.
Fuel queues forming for no reason.
And of course, one policeman standing in the middle of the road doing absolutely nothing but causing everything.

That’s how the fundamentals feel this week.

Noisy.
Fast.
Chaotic.
And if you’re not watching closely, the moves will leave you behind, like that LASTMA van that towed a trader’s Corolla last week.

So let’s cut through the madness and get you ahead of what’s unfolding…

Fundamental Drivers This Week (July 15–19)

Here’s what’s steering the big players in the market:

1. EURUSD: Dollar at a Crossroads — All Eyes on Retail Sales

Current Price: ~1.1666
Bias: Mixed, with a tilt toward USD strength if data holds up

The dollar is playing a mind game with the markets right now.

Last week’s soft CPI gave traders hope — “Finally, rate cuts are coming.”
But then came the Fed officials like Waller and Daly with a cold splash of reality:

Now, all eyes turn to U.S. Retail Sales (Tuesday) to settle the score.

• If consumption holds strong? USD will catch a bid, and EURUSD may dip below 1.1620, targeting liquidity pockets near 1.1570.

• If sales disappoint? The Fed pause narrative gains ground — and EURUSD could rally back toward 1.1770+.

📌 Mr. Pips says: Don’t pick sides yet. Let the data clear the fog.

2. GBPUSD: Inflation & Jobs Will Set the Tone

Current Price: ~1.3468
Bias: Waiting on U.K. data to decide direction

This week, the pound is standing at the edge of a cliff — but whether it jumps or soars depends entirely on two things:
U.K. CPI (Wednesday) and Wage Data (Thursday).

If inflation remains sticky and wage growth stays hot, the BoE will have no choice but to delay rate cuts — and the pound will likely bounce hard.

But if the data confirms disinflation?
Markets will front-run the BoE’s dovish pivot, and GBP will get dumped — especially against the dollar.

📌 Mr. Pips is watching for a flush into the 1.3611–1.3580 zone, where early sellers get trapped…
Then, if CPI prints hot, he’ll be looking for a bullish reversal to ride the upside.

3. GBPCHF: Risk-On Sentiment Lifting the Pound

Current Price: ~1.0746

The Swiss franc is losing its safe-haven shine as traders rotate into risk assets.
At the same time, the pound has room to rally — especially if this week’s U.K. CPI and wage data come in hot.

The BoE isn’t in a rush to cut rates, and that stance could fuel more GBP upside, particularly against low-volatility currencies like CHF.

📌 Mr. Pips favors GBPCHF longs, especially if we get even a hint of sticky inflation from the U.K. midweek.
Break and close above 1.0780 opens the way to 1.0860.

4. XAUUSD (Gold): Hawkish Fed + Rising Yields Pressuring Bulls

Current Price: ~$3,371

Gold had its moment after soft CPI, but the party didn’t last long.
Real yields are climbing again, and Fed officials — including Powell — continue to stress it’s too early to declare victory on inflation.

That’s a red flag for gold.

📌 Price is hovering near major resistance at 3375–3380 — but this area looks like a liquidity trap, not a breakout.
Unless geopolitics explode or yields suddenly collapse, Mr. Pips expects a rejection from here.

Next downside magnet? 3240, possibly 3220, if Fed tone holds.

5. NZDCAD: Weak Kiwi vs. Oil-Linked CAD

Current Price: ~0.8225

The Kiwi is soft — and for good reason.
New Zealand’s inflation outlook continues to cool, and the RBNZ has made it clear: rate hikes are done.

Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar is quietly gaining strength, thanks to stable oil prices and a mild uptick in global risk sentiment.
If crude continues to rally this week, CAD will likely get a further boost.

📌 Mr. Pips is bearish on NZDCAD — especially with oil pushing toward $78 and NZ data offering no surprises.
A break below 0.8200 could open the path toward 0.8120 in the coming sessions.

6. USDJPY: Still Rising... But Tokyo Is Watching

Current Price: ~147.30

The yen is still weak, and the dollar keeps flexing.
But don’t get too comfortable: BOJ officials have been issuing soft warnings like clockwork, hinting they’re watching every pip.

If USDJPY even sniffs 160 again, intervention risk spikes.
Not just verbal, but real action.

At the same time, the dollar remains strong, and unless Retail Sales miss badly, it’s hard to see a sustainable yen rebound just yet.

📌 A squeeze higher is possible, especially if U.S. data prints hot.
But remember: The higher it goes, the more likely Tokyo pulls the emergency brake.

7. USOIL: Supply Risk Back in Focus

Current Price: ~$77.20

Crude is climbing again, and for good reason.
Ongoing Houthi disruptions and disciplined OPEC+ output cuts are keeping the supply side tight.

But there's a catch:
U.S. demand remains shaky, and if inventories show a surprise build this Wednesday, that could cap the upside quickly.

Still, as long as geopolitical tensions simmer and supply stays restricted, oil remains a buy-on-dip asset.

📌 Crude under $74 is a gift.
But even at ~$77, any retest of the $74–$75 zone is where smart money may reload — before the next leg higher.

8. BITCOIN: Still Rangebound: But Retail Sales Hold the Key

Current Price: ~$122,720

Bitcoin rallied after the soft CPI print, breaking past short-term resistance and even clearing $120k.

But now? It’s stalling.

Price is hovering around $122,000–$123,000, with volatility tightening.
It’s the kind of calm that usually comes before the storm.

If Retail Sales disappoint, the market could interpret that as another green light for Fed cuts → BTC rips past $125k and heads for $130k+.

But if Retail Sales surprise to the upside and yields rise again?
Expect a pullback to $117,000–$115,000 as risk appetite fades and the dollar fights back.

📌 CPI gave it wings.
Now, Retail Sales will decide if it soars… or stalls mid-air.

Mr. Pips’ Final Word

This week’s market feels like Lagos rush hour:

• Some traders are pushing forward like danfo drivers at Ojuelegba under-bridge.

• Others are frozen like passengers who just saw LASTMA checking papers.

The key is this: Let fundamentals guide your bias, but let price confirm your entry.

Don’t be the trader who jumps in because the market is moving…
Be the one who understands why it’s moving — and where it plans to go next.

And if you're low on capital, don't sit this out.

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It’s still running all through July.

Stay sharp,
Mr. Pips
Lead Analyst, WMarkets