In Lagos, if the road doesn’t test you, the sky will

Mr. Pips draws trading wisdom from Lagos traffic, and maps out this week’s high-impact fundamentals.

Author

Pips WMarkets
June 30, 2025

From the Desk of Mr. Pips

Every time you step out in Lagos… you better say a prayer.

Because anything can happen.

Last Thursday, I left my house in Surulere by 7:00am, thinking I’d beat traffic.
Big mistake.

By 7:15, I had already seen:

  • A conductor chasing a passenger for ₦50,

  • A Danfo driver reversing on 3rd Mainland Bridge like it was his father's compound,

  • And a guy selling suya in morning traffic… shirtless.

But then came the real madness.

Just before CMS, one agbero walked up to my window and said:

“Oga, if you no give us ₦200, your tyre go burst mysteriously.”

I laughed.

But deep down, I knew he wasn’t joking.

That’s Lagos for you.

One minute you're minding your business.
The next? You're dodging flying sachet water and wondering how your Uber bill became ₦11,000.

And that… is how the markets behave too.

One moment, you think price is headed for your TP.
The next? FOMC minutes drop and your setup goes from "clean snipe" to "emotional damage."

So this week, I’m not just trading price…

I’m trading behavior.

I’ve mapped out where retail is getting too comfortable… and where I believe smart money is watching.

Let’s get into it.

This Week’s Fundamental Watchlist

Asset / Pair

Driver

Narrative

Bias

USDCHF

Hawkish Fed + Dovish SNB

The Fed’s tone is firm: no cuts until data forces it. Meanwhile, the SNB already cut rates and may cut again. Risk flows favor the dollar.

LONG USDCHF

GOLD (XAUUSD)

Sticky Inflation + Strong USD

With real yields rising and inflation not cooling fast enough, Gold loses its shine. A strong NFP will spark heavy selloff

SHORT GOLD

WTI Crude Oil

Demand fears + High Inventory

Oil faces a double hit: softening demand (esp. in China) and rising U.S. stockpiles. Supply isn’t tight enough to keep it up.

SHORT OIL

SPX500

Overvalued Tech + Hawkish Fed

Tech stocks look bloated. If the Fed holds rates and jobs data comes in hot, equities may sell off on “higher-for-longer” fears.

SHORT SPX500

USDCAD

Oil Weakness + Diverging Policy

Oil-linked CAD is weakening. BoC sounds more cautious than the Fed. U.S. strength and oil softness fuel USD dominance.

LONG USDCAD

CADJPY

Oil Sensitivity + Risk-Off Flows

If oil dips and yen demand rises due to global uncertainty, CADJPY could fall sharply.

SHORT CADJPY

NZDUSD

Weak China Data + RBNZ Caution

NZD is exposed to China, and recent Chinese PMIs disappointed. RBNZ is cautious, while Fed is firm. That’s bearish for the Kiwi.

SHORT NZDUSD

EURNZD

EU Data Stable, NZ Under Pressure

Europe may not be strong, but NZD’s macro headwinds (China + soft inflation) make EUR the safer side.

LONG EURNZD

Get Your Head In The Game

Fundamentals are the real traffic lights of the market.
Technical setups can look perfect, but one strong NFP report or hawkish Fed speaker, and your entire plan gets danfo’d.

This week is about macro discipline.

Here’s what I’ll be watching:

📅 Key Releases:

  • Nonfarm Payrolls (July 3)

  • ADP Employment + JOLTS (July 1–2)

  • Powell’s Speeches (July 1–2)

  • ISM Manufacturing PMI (July 1)

  • Canadian Unemployment & Employment Change (July 5)

  • Crude Oil Inventories (July 3)

Each of these has the potential to shift sentiment sharply, especially if they shock consensus.

Final Word

In Lagos, you don’t just leave your house.

You prepare for battle.

Because anything can happen:

  • A sudden roadblock,

  • Rain falling only on your street,

  • Or LASTMA confiscating your keke because you “looked suspicious.”

That’s how you should enter the market this week.
Not just with setups, but with situational awareness.

I’m not trading charts. I’m trading reactions.

See you on the inside.

— Mr. Pips
Lead Analyst, WMarkets

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